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All the charts below correspond to the same example. All are for data time 00UTC 6th August 2017, and we focus on the forecast for 8th August.  Fig8.1.9.6-7 and Fig8.1.9.6-8 show 6-hour ensemble control precipitation forecasts for 00UTC on the 8 and 9 Aug 2017 as displayed by ecCharts.  It appears an area of significant rainfall associated with an upper trough moves from southwest France to Austria.   However, precipitation data is not shown for 12UTC on 8 Aug.  Meanwhile 24-hour total precipitation EFI (0.9) (Fig8.1.9.6-9) and MUCAPE-shear EFI (0.85) (Fig8.1.9.6-11) are available for 00UTC 9 Aug and show very high values.  MUCAPE EFI (0.6) (Fig8.1.9.6-10)  is only moderate illustrating the significant impact of bulk shear to give the high MUCAPE-shear EFI values.  The precipitation meteogram for the western Alps shows heavy rainfall in that area during the day and this is confirmed by data on Fig8.1.9.6-8 and Fig8.1.9.6-12 (note that these charts have different but overlapping validity periods). 

Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast output is equivalent to HRES output shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.  The examples below may be used as a guide to performance of the Ensemble Control Forecast .

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