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Fig8.1.9.6-19: Forecast vertical profile for Zaragoza DT 00UTC 6 July 2023 VT 12UTC 6 July 2023.  Large MUCAPE can be released after overcoming small CIN with strong bulk wind shear available.  The ENS cumulative distribution function for precipitation at Zaragoza during the 24hr period 00UTC 6 July to 00UTC 7 July 2023.  The CDFs for DT 00UTC 5 July (purple), DT 12UTC 5 July (blue), DT 00UTC 6 July (red) all show about 5% of ensemble members produce precipitation greater than the extreme of M-climate for Zaragoza.  Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  

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