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Comment: Added record-low tables and interpretation

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The 1963 P01 values look odd next to 2017's — around 198 cm for early March against ~124 cm for early January. That isn't an error: the percentiles come from the 1990–2021 climatology, which has a much higher 1st percentile in March than in January. It does mean the 1963 days sit far below their seasonal P01 while several 2017 days sit just above theirs, which is why the "below P01" column disagrees with the anomaly ranking in places.


Record low levels and largest anomalies

Calculated over the whole series, 1 January 1960 to 2026-09-06 (24,356 days), combining the BfG record with the live Bonn Pegel readings. All values are on the current gauge zero, so the years before November 1979 have been corrected upwards by 1 metre.

The 20 lowest daily water levels

#DateLevel (cm)Anomaly (cm)Normal for the date (cm)P01 (cm)Source
12026-08-1763-188.6251120live
22026-08-1863-186.3249119live
32026-08-1664-188.6253121live
42026-08-1564-189.6254122live
52026-08-1366-188.1254123live
62026-08-1467-187.6255123live
72026-08-1270-184.6254123live
82026-08-1970-177.4247118live
92026-08-1171-183.0254123live
102026-08-0775-178.2253126BfG
112026-08-1075-178.4253124BfG
122026-08-0677-177.2254126BfG
132026-08-0877-175.8253126BfG
142026-08-0978-174.9253125BfG
152026-08-2079-166.4245116live
162026-08-0180-183.7264132BfG
172018-10-2281-144.122584BfG
182018-10-2381-145.222684BfG
192026-08-0381-178.0259128BfG
202018-10-2582-147.122983BfG

The 20 most negative anomalies

#DateLevel (cm)Anomaly (cm)Normal for the date (cm)P01 (cm)Source
12017-01-10117-266.5383124BfG
22017-01-09118-266.2384124BfG
32017-01-08120-263.9384123BfG
42017-01-03123-260.9384125BfG
52017-01-04124-260.3384124BfG
61963-03-04116-260.2376198BfG
72017-01-02124-259.4383125BfG
81963-03-05116-259.0375197BfG
92017-01-11123-258.8382124BfG
102017-01-01125-258.6384126BfG
112017-01-05126-258.5384124BfG
122017-01-07125-258.4383123BfG
131963-03-03118-258.3376198BfG
141963-03-02119-256.3375201BfG
152016-12-31129-255.6385126BfG
162017-01-06128-255.6384123BfG
171963-02-12111-254.6366149BfG
181963-03-06121-253.8375194BfG
192016-12-29132-253.5385131BfG
202016-12-30132-253.4385127BfG

What this means

The two tables answer different questions, and 2026 dominates one while being completely absent from the other.

August 2026 is a genuine record in absolute terms. Nine days in a row, from 11 to 19 August, sit below every previous reading in 66 years, with a low of 63 cm on 17-18 August. This was a sustained event, not a single spike. It also happened after the BfG record ends, so it is only visible thanks to the live gauge readings.

But it is not the largest departure from normal. Summer levels are naturally low: the normal level in mid-August is about 250 cm, so even 63 cm gives an anomaly of about -189 cm. Winter levels are normally about 385 cm, so January 2017 at 117 cm gives -266 cm. The seasonal cycle limits how negative a summer anomaly can be: the river cannot fall 260 cm below normal when normal is only 250 cm.

The largest anomalies are all winter events, in December-March, concentrated in three episodes: January 2017 (11 days), March 1963 (6 days) and late December 2016 (3 days). Six of these are from before November 1979 and depend on the 1-metre datum correction; without it they would appear far more extreme than they really were.

Comparing against the seasonal 1st percentile sharpens the picture. The 2026 days sit around 120 cm below a P01 of about 120 cm for the time of year, while the 2018 days sit near a P01 of about 84 cm. Relative to what is normal for that point in the calendar, 2026 is the more unusual event.

Table generated automatically on 07 September 2026.