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This is an extreme example of difference between the IFS M-climate and AIFS M-climate.  Although the verifying station is in a mountainous area but this does't explain but both IFS M-climate and AIFS M-climate have the same orography.


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Fig5.3.6-1: An extreme example of difference between the IFS M-climate and AIFS M-climate.  Both IFS (blue) and AIFS (red) ensemble forecasts of daily mean temperature are quite similar and agree well with the observation.  The AIFS M-climate is much warmer than the IFS M-climate.   The AIFS ensemble forecasts (blue) are completely lower than the corresponding AIFS M-climate (grey) - AIFS EFI is -100%.  The IFS forecast (red), and the AIFS forecast (blue) is much closer to the IFS M climate (black) -  IFS EFI is +31%.