Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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On 27 July parts of United Arabian Emirates was hit by torrential rainfall, causing around 5 7 fatalities. Fujairah measured 169 mm in 24 hours.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 7224-hour precipitation valid 27 July 00UTC - 28 July 00UTC for Fujairah (25N, 56.2E). Mean of observations - green hourglass, concatenated 6-hour forecasts - green dot, HRES –red, ENS CF – purple, ENS blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
The plot below shows the same as above but for the maximum 24-rainfall with a 1x1 degree box centred on Fujairah. Here we find a nearby grid point with almost 200 mm in the ensemble.
The plots below show:
- First row: 99th percentile of the ENS for 12-h precipitation forecast at different lead times and always valid from 27th 12UTC to 28th 00 UTC 2022.
- Second row: 99th percentile of the ecPoint for 12-h precipitation forecast at different lead times and always valid from 27th 12UTC to 28th 00 UTC 2022.
- Third row: CDFs for the ENS (
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- red) and ecPoint (blue) 12-h precipitation forecast at different lead times and always valid from 27th 12UTC to 28th 00 UTC 2022.
| T+12h | T+24h | T+48h | T+72h | T+96h | T+120h | T+144 | T+168h | |
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ENS raw 99th perc |
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ecPoint 99th perc |
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CDFs ENSraw and ecPoint |
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3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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