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Acronyms
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Table 2: Overview and description of tECVs.Anchor table2 table2
Long Name | Output from | Short Name | Unit of modelled tECV | Description |
Air temperature | Climate model | Degrees | Temperature of the air at approximately 2m above the surface. | |
Precipitation | Climate model | mm/day | Water falling as rain, snow, sleet, or hail per unit area during a given time period. | |
Potential | Hydrological model | PET | mm/day | Amount of evaporation that would occur if a sufficient water source were available. |
River Discharge | Hydrological model | m3/s | Volumetric discharge through stream or river channel. | |
Groundwater recharge | Hydrological | mm/day | Volume of percolating water through the unsaturated zone to the aquifer. | |
Snow water equivalent | Hydrological model | SWE | mm/day | The equivalent volume of water in the snow pack if the snow were to be melted. |
Soil moisture | Hydrological model | Volume of water within the unsaturated zone of the soil profile. |
Table 3 provides a full list of the available indicators (SCIIs) within the dataset, defined by the modelled tECVs, the statistic calculated, and the time aggregation over which this statistic is calculated. As stated above, all indicators are provided as values for each 5km grid cell, with the exception of the soil moisture drought extent SCII, which is provided for specified basin boundaries (WFD basins), i.e. each grid cell within a basin contains the same number, representative of the whole basin.
Table 3: List of available indicatorsAnchor table3 table3
tECV | Indicator time aggregation | Indicator statistic | Unit of change, compared to reference period | Unit of absolute values over reference period |
Precipitation | Annual | Mean | % |
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Temperature | Annual | Mean | degrees Celsius | degrees |
Potential | Annual | Mean | % |
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River Discharge | Annual | Mean | % |
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Drought (Q95) | ||||
Seasonal Monthly | Mean | |||
Groundwater Recharge | Annual | Mean | % |
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Seasonal | Mean | |||
Snow Water | Annual | Mean | % |
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| Drought Extent | % |
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Drought Duration | months |
Each individual file within the dataset, containing the indicators (in Table 3 above) for each applicable combination of RCP, GCM and hydrological model, contains file-level variables of change compared to the reference period, and also the absolute values of the indicator statistic over the reference period. It is strongly recommended that the change metrics are used to understand future projections of the tECVs in Table 2 TECVs produced by the models, from which the indicators are derived, are described in Table 2, including the origin (climate model or hydrological model) and the unit of the modelled tECV.
Table 2 above, rather than computing absolute change using the reference period values and the relative change. Absolute values over the reference period are provided to help with understanding of the outputs of the individual combinations of GCM and hydrological model.
Table 4: List of file-level variables and descriptionsAnchor table4 table4
File-level variable name | Description | Applicable to | Dimensions |
relative_change | Relative change in indicator statistic from the reference period | All indicators except those based on | X, Y, time (12 intervals) |
to each future time | |||
absolute_change | Absolute change in the indicator statistic from the reference period to each future time | Temperature-based indicators only | X, Y, time (12 intervals) |
ref_var_threshold | Value of indicator statistic over reference period in absolute values, for the given climate and | All indicators | X, Y |
Input Data
Table 5: Overview of climate model data used as input for the "Water sector indicators of projected hydrological change for Europe from 2011 until 2095" dataset, summarizing the model properties and available scenario simulations.Anchor table5 table5
Input Data | ||||
Model name | Model centre | Scenario | Period | Resolution |
GFDL-ESM2M | Geophysical Fluid | RCP 2.6 and 8.5 | Baseline: 1951- | 25 km x 25 km |
HadGEM2- ES | Hadley Centre | RCP 2.6 and 8.5 | 1.25° x 1.875° | |
IPSL-CM5A-LR | IPSL Climate | RCP 2.6 and 8.5 | 1.875° x 3.75° | |
MIROC-ESMCHEM | University of | RCP 2.6 and 8.5 | 680 m x 680 m | |
NOR-ESM1M | University | RCP 2.6 and 8.5 | 2° for the atmosphere and land components and 1° for the ocean and ice components |
Climate Models
The EDgE modelling chain begins with climate variables from Global Climate Models (GCMs). These climate variables (e.g. precipitation and temperature) were used to derive the variables needed as inputs to the hydrological models. Five GCMs have been used in EDgE: GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2- ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, and NOR-ESM1M. These models were chosen as they are the models from CMIP5 that were chosen for implementation in the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP).
GFDL-ESM2M
The Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) constructed NOAA's first Earth System Models (ESMs) (Dunne et al. 2012, 2013) to advance understanding of how the Earth's biogeochemical cycles, including human actions, interact with the climate system. ESM2M evolved from GFDL's CM2.1 climate model, and building on this GFDL produced two new models representing ocean physics with alternative numerical frameworks to explore the implications of some of the fundamental assumptions embedded in these models. In ESM2M, pressure-based vertical coordinates are used along the developmental path of GFDL's Modular Ocean Model version 4.1.
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Table 6: Summary of physo-geographic data used for hydrological modellingAnchor table6 table6
Description | Data source | Link |
Elevation | EU-DEM GOTOPO30 | |
PanEuropean | CCM2 v2.1 |
Soils texture | SoilGrids 1km | |
Land cover | GlobCOVER v2 | |
Hydrogeology | IHME1500v11 | https://www.bgr.bund.de/Ihme1500/ |
Lead Area | GIMMS | |
World | WRD | https://www. |
icoldcigb.org/GB/world_register/world_register_of_dams.asp |
Method
Background
The EDgE modelling chain, producing Sectoral Climate Impact Indicators from climate model projections, is summarized in Figure 2.
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Yuan, X., J.K. Roundy, E.F. Wood, and J. Sheffield. 2015: Seasonal Forecasting of Global Hydrologic Extremes: System Development and Evaluation over GEWEX Basins. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society 96(11): 1895–1912.
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This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S). The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of C3S on behalf of the European Union (Delegation agreement Agreement signed on 11/11/2014 and Contribution Agreement signed on 22/07/2021). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The users thereof use the information at their sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubt , the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts have no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the author's view. |
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