Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim, Thomas H.,..
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
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On 12-17 September a low-pressure system named Boris caused record-breaking rainfall in Central Europe. It led to severe flooding in e.g Austria, Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland and also caused fatalities in Romania.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yjjqyv84eo
2. Description of the event
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The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 10 September to 16 September.
For Vienna, 7 stations was found nearby (3-day accumulation):
stnid,latitude,longitude,stnid,elevation,value_0,count
11082,48.04,16.28,11082,212.0,131.1,3
11040,48.12,16.42,11040,200.0,113.4,3
11036,48.12,16.58,11036,183.0,129.7,3
11034,48.2,16.37,11034,177.0,217.6,3
11037,48.2,16.56,11037,153.0,166.6,3
11035,48.25,16.36,11035,209.0,176.9,3
11090,48.26,16.43,11090,162.0,176.1,3
Below are a list of new 5-day records of precipitation in Austria:
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in observations (first plot, to be added) and concatenated short forecasts (second plot).
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in ENS control forecasts with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in DestinE 4.4km with different lead times.
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The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS with different lead times.
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in AIFS0-ENS member 1 with different lead times.
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation for Vienna (split in two figures to fit all forecast types).
Observation - green hourglass (to be added
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - cyan dot
Desint4.4km - evergreen dot
AIFS-ENS - grey box-and-whisker
cy49r1 ENS - purple box-and-whisker
Model climate – cyan box-and-whisker
Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
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The plot below shows the same as above but for Ostrava.
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The plots below show hit (green), misses (purple) and false alarms (cyan) of predicting precipitation above the 99th percentile of model climate, based on the ensemble median.
The plots below show the same as above but for AIFS-ENS.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
The plots below show forecasts of weekly precipitation anomalies for 9-15 September.
3.5 Comparison with other centres
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