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Introduction Introduction

Introduction

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• The Northeast Atlantic domain (NEMO model)
  • CMIP5 driving model: Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC) Hadley Global Environment Model 2 – Earth System (HadGEM2-ES). Further information regarding the model is available here: https://portal.enes.org/models/earthsystem-models/metoffice-hadley-centre/hadgem2-es
  • Regional climate model: SMHI RCA4, as for the pan-European domain
  • Greenhouse gas concentration scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
  • Variables: 6 hourly surface forcing 10 m wind components, sea level pressure, 2 m air temperature and relative humidity, daily precipitation, shortwave and longwave radiation flux and cloud cover
• The pan-European domain (POLCOMS model)
  • CMIP5 driving model: Max Planck Institute-Earth System Model-Low Resolution (MPI-ESM-LR). Further information regarding the model is available here: https://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/models/mpi-esm/
  • Regional climate model: Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Rossby Centre Regional Atmospheric Model. Further information regarding the model is available here: https://www.smhi.se/en/research/research-departments/climate-research-at-the-rossby-centre/rossby-centre-regional-atmospheric-model-rca4-1.16562
  • Greenhouse gas concentration scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5
  • Variables: 6 hourly surface forcing 10 m wind components, sea level pressure, 2 m air temperature and relative humidity, daily precipitation, shortwave and longwave radiation flux and cloud cover

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Marine spatial planning is one the most important activities for marine-focussed policy-makers and regulators. Marine spatial planning, including the designation of conservation areas, is usually undertaken based on the current uses of territorial waters, advising exclusive use or co-location of
multiple uses based on trade-offs across economic sectors, as well as maximising environmental sustainability.
This approach may be informed by stock assessment processes and other scientific advice that considers the progression of an ecosystem and its resources to the present time. However, based on this information alone, it is difficult to consider within planning mechanisms how pervasive and wide-scaled processes linked to climate change are and will continue to modify the distribution and availability of marine living resources, as well as the distribution of habitats suitable for species of conservation value. This is because climate change imposes combinations of environmental stressors and ecosystem conditions on marine species that may be markedly different from those historically observed within a region.
Marine spatial planning commitments can often take no account of how resources could change in time. This is important since changes happening in the ocean, driven by pressures associated with climate change, will modify the future distribution of marine resources underlying the conservation, fisheries and aquaculture sectors.
The NEMO-ERSEM and POLCOMS-ERSEM dataset can be used to support marine spatial planning by providing a sound scientific basis with which to assess dependencies between the status of environmental conditions that may affect fisheries returns and marine conservation effectiveness, including present and future climate change. Models can also offer the possibility to explore management scenarios and anticipate 'surprises', such as regime shifts, trophic cascades and bottlenecks in human responses resulting from the pressures of climate change on marine species.

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Natural capital refers to the world's stocks of natural assets, which provide goods and services fundamental to supporting economic development and human well-being. Natural capital accounting provides a structured approach to recording and monitoring the extent and condition of natural resources and ecosystems over time.
In the past, measures of human interactions with natural capital in the marine domain have been restricted to measurements of the income generated for the use of the natural resource, such as income from the sale of wild caught fish. It has long been recognised, though, that focussing solely on measuring income omits changes in the stocks of natural assets, often leading to their mismanagement. This is most clearly seen in the instances of overexploitation of fisheries in the pursuit of income growth. More recently, the physical assessments of marine natural capital accounts are based on the ecosystem condition (compiled from key characteristics) and extent. The NEMO-ERSEM and POLCOMS-ERSEM dataset contains data on lower levels of the marine food web and information concerning marine physics and biogeochemistry, therefore would be useful when considering natural capital accounting.

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