An EFAS Formal Flood Notification is sent out to the affected EFAS partner if at least
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50 % of the total forecast probability exceeds the EFAS 5-year return period
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and if the start of the event is more than 48 hours and less than 7 days in advance with respect to forecast time (Example: for the forecast 2024-06-18 00 UTC the event should start from
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2024-06-20 00 UTC and before 2024-06-25 00UTC). The start of the event is when 50% of the ensemble, i.e. the median of the boxplot, exceeds the 5-year RP.
Formal Flood notifications can only be issued if the catchment area is larger than
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1000 km2.
EFAS Formal notifications are sent to partners by e-mail. All partners within transnational basins receive the notification as a notice of a predicted event in the basin.
EFAS Formal Notification e-mail
The affected country and river basin as well as the predicted start and earliest peak of the event are indicated in the notification email.
Forecast date refers to the model run when criteria were fulfilled. Using the link to EFAS IS, you can follow the event or leave feedback on it (see also section 4.4). Only one notification is issued for each event, after the notification it is on the partner to follow the evolution of the event.