Page updated on:
blueNEWS!
- Comments on convective index behaviour in 47r2 have been added to the current evaluation
- Reminder: Access to the operational PREd will be closed at 9 UTC on 10 May. Any changes to the operational requirements can be implemented after 10 UTC on 12 May
Recording of the webinar on Cycle 47r2 performance, products and technical aspects is now available
- Updated information on recommended software versions
- Graphical products based on 47r2 test data will become available on 6 April
Final webinar, focusing on latest model verification, new products, handling of ENS model level increase in dissemination and technical aspects, has been scheduled for
16 April 2021 at 8:00 (UTC). Join the webinar
Recording of the webinar on ENS model level handling in dissemination is now available
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Meteorological content
In this model cycle single precision for ENS (forecast up to d+46 and hindcast) and HRES (forecast)Evaluation of 47r2
Score cards
The change to single precision is neutral in terms of HRES skill (less than a 0.3% change is typical for the troposphere, and the frequency of statistically significant differences is in line with what one might expect by chance), but there are benefits of the increased levels in the ENS.
The ensemble score card is overwhelmingly positive and statistically significant (occasional negative changes are small in magnitude.)
Scorecards presenting the new cycle performance are regularly updated:Tropical Cyclones in the Ensemble (all basins)
The ensemble scores for Tropical Cyclones show reduced intensity errors (largely associated with reduced bias: ~2hPa mean reduction in central pressure) in the medium-range, increased spread, and improved reliability as measured by the spread-error agreement. The cycle is neutral in terms of track errors.
Root mean square errors in the ensemble mean of tropical cyclone (TC) intensities and locations, along with the standard deviation (spread) of TC intensities and locations amongst the ensemble members. Results are based on all TC basins for the periods 20191125-20200228 and 20200510-20201130. The numbers at the top of the top panel indicate the number of TCs which could be evaluated at each lead time increased (pointing up) and decreased (pointing down) values, which are significant when the shading is with more saturated.
Indicators related to convection
The introduction of more levels in ENS has slightly changed the values of some convective indicators. CAPE and CAPE-shear are slightly higher, on average, in the 47r2 ENS than they were in the 47r1 ENS. Lightning density is also slightly higher in 47r2 - global data for April 2021, for example, showed an increase of 20%. Meanwhile values of these parameters in HRES have not changed. Whilst it is difficult to verify the value increases seen in ENS, a significant plus for users is that HRES and ENS representations of CAPE, CAPE-shear and Lightning Flash Density become more compatible. The plots below show examples of differences between 47r2 and 47r1, for CAPE and CAPE-shear daily maxima, in the Model Climate.Day 2 differences (47r2 minus 47r1) in the (20-year) Model Climate (M-Climate) values, for a valid date of 6 May, for CAPE-shear (mean only), and CAPE (mean, and 95th (Q95) and 99th (Q99) percentiles), based in both cases on the daily maxima of hourly values. Red colours mean that the 47r2 ENS is delivering higher values of these parameters in some systematic sense. Standard units apply to the legends (m2/s2 for CAPE-shear, J/kg for CAPE).Technical information