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5minAI4G3WMarkus Reichstein & Gp Balsamo
5minESA-ECMWF AI submissionGp & Markus The Global Greenhouse Gas Watch and the role of Artificial Intelligence


Gianpaolo Balsamo (WMO, formerly at ECMWF) and Markus Reichstein (MPI-JenaBGC)

Greenhouse gas emissions, greenhouse gas concentrations and global mean temperature all continue to rise, and in order to stay within the temperature limits stipulated in the text of the Paris Agreement, mitigation action is becoming increasingly urgent.However, the fact that we cannot quantitatively and reliably predict future GHG concentrations – and therefore climate scenarios – from assumed future emission pathways is a complicating factor when designing mitigation action. Even more

problematic

urgentis the assessment of the impact or effectiveness of

many current or proposed

mitigation activities, since it often has to be based on indirect measures such as avoided emissions with respect to a hypothetical baseline, or carbon stored, e.g. in the land or ocean biosphere, neither of which can be directly linked to atmospheric concentrations.

In order to provide robust, actionable data that will help Parties to the UNFCCC and other stakeholder design and develop mitigation action and monitor its effectiveness, the World Meteorological Congress in May 2023 endorsed the Global Greenhouse Gas Watch (G3W) as an internationally coordinated framework to provide near-real time GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) flux estimates based on atmospheric modelling and atmospheric observations.  At COP28 in Dubai, the G3W was formally recognized by the Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA-59) to the UNFCCC.

Currently a G3W implementation plan has been developed, with the aim of submitting it for approval by the WMO Executive Council by mid-2024. Some of the key elements of the plan are a significant strengthening of the global GHG observing capabilities, improved near-real time exchange of both observational

data

concentrationand flux estimates, and routine

intercomparision

intercomparison of model output among all participating flux estimation centers.

The presentation will introduce the overall G3W development timeline which aims for a full operational capability to be ready for the Second Global Stocktake in 2027-28, with the main focus on the near-term activities planned for 2024-25. The relevance of Artificial Intelligence will be brought forward thanks to an AI for Carbon-Meteorology Workshop of the 8th of January 2024. In particular AI approaches promiseto fuse different data streams in a highly efficient way, and similar to current AI based weather forecasts, speed up classical atmospheric transport und chemistry models, allowing faster inference of fluxes and chemical reaction rates.

Action items

  •  Gp to submit the abstract