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The application automatically updates its data in the month following the end of the required season. For the JFM temperature, this is on day 30 of April. For the JJA precipitation it is on day 30 of September.

Application interface

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The map’s graphical display contains four visible layers, applicable to both variables:

  • Mean temperature (Jan-Feb-Mar)/ Total precipitation (Jun-Jul-Aug) – the default map selection - displays the variable from the dropdown menu for the selected year in the time slider.
  • Threshold (10th percentile) – displays the 10th percentile value for each Member State Proximity to threshold  – shows for each year the difference between the variable and the threshold. This layer displays how far each Member State is from the threshold value for the selected year in the time slider.
  • Below threshold – a binary display showing the Member States falling below the threshold for the selected year in the time slider .Proximity to threshold  – shows for each year the difference between the variable and the threshold. This layer displays how far each Member State is from the threshold value (Figure 2).
  • Threshold (10th percentile) – displays the 10th percentile value for each Member State for the selected year in the time slider. The 10th percentile means that the winter (JFM) / summer (JJA) belongs to the 10% coldest / driest using the 30-years reference period 1991-2020 obtained from ERA5 monthly and then seasonally averaged data
  • Mean temperature (Jan-Feb-Mar)/ Total precipitation (Jun-Jul-Aug) – the default map selection - displays the variable from the dropdown menu for the selected year in the time slider (Figure 1).

The data value is presented upon hovering the mouse over the Member States.

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Clicking on a Member State in the interactive map will open a detailed view for that Member State and present a timeseries graph – line- or bar-graph depending on the variable selected (e.g. Figure 13, right panel). The graph presents the values calculated for each year together with the threshold identified by the 10th 10th percentile (red line). The exceptionally cold winters dry summers are identified by the red data points and are bars situated below the threshold line.

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  • Step 1: Retrieve the monthly mean temperature data for January, February, and March (JFM) over Europe (area:  34-72N; -25-45E) for each year between 1991 to present from the CDS catalogue entry.
  • Step 2: Calculate the average temperature over the three months for each year, for each grid point (temporal dimension).
  • Step 3: Calculate the Member State median JFM temperature for each year using the data from step 2 above (spatial dimension).
  • Step 4: Estimate the 10th 10th percentile over the reference period (1991-2020) for each year and for each Member State.
  • Step 5: Identify the years that fall below the 10th percentile estimated in step 4 and mark them as below the threshold years.

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  • Step 1: Retrieve the monthly mean precipitation data for June, July, and August (JJA) over Europe (area:  34-72N; -25-45E) for each year between 1991-present from the CDS catalogue entry.
  • Step 2: Calculate the sum of the precipitation over JJA for each year for each grid point (temporal dimension).
  • Step 3: Calculate the Member State median JJA precipitation for each year using the data from step 2 above (spatial dimension).
  • Step 4: Estimate the 10th 10th percentile over the reference period (1991-2020) for each year and for each Member State.
  • Step 5: Identify the years that fall below the 10th percentile estimated in step 4 and mark them as below the threshold years.

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  1. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv%3AOJ.L_.2016.344.01.0001.01.ENG
  2. https://cds.climate.copernicus.eu/cdsapp#!/dataset/reanalysis-era5-single-levels-monthly-means


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This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S).

The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of C3S on behalf of the European Union (Delegation agreement Agreement signed on 11/11/2014 and Contribution Agreement signed on 22/07/2021). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose.

The users thereof use the information at their sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubt , the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts have no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the author's view.