Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Tim, Thomas H.,..
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Discussed in the following Daily reports:
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1. Impact
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On 12-17 September a low-pressure system named Boris caused record-breaking rainfall in Central Europe. It led to severe flooding in e.g Austria, Czech Republic, Slovenia and Poland and also caused fatalities in Romania.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5yjjqyv84eo
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Below are a list of new 5-day records of precipitation in Austria:
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show 72-hour precipitation in observations (first plot, to be added) and concatenated short forecasts (second plot).
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The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation for Vienna (split in two figures to fit all forecast types).
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS control–red
ENS - blue box-and-whisker
AIFS - cyan dot
Desint4.4km - evergreen dot
AIFS-ENS - grey box-and-whisker
cy49r1 ENS - purple box-and-whisker
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Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.
The plot below shows the same as above but for Ostrava.
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The plots below show hit (green), misses (purple) and false alarms (cyan) of predicting precipitation above the 99th percentile of model climate, based on the ensemble median.
The plots below show the same as above but for AIFS-ENS.
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3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
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