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The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for the grid point with maximum 24-hour precipitation valid 10 July for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).
The plot below shows the same as above but for the 24-hour average CAPE in the box.
The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for the grid point with lightning activity over 24 hours valid 20 August for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (grey box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker). It was a much elevated lightning activity in the forecasts issues the days before the event.
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