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The plots below show EFI and SOT for total precipitation valid 11-13 September. In forecasts from 8 September and earlier, the EFI signal was shifted to the east.
The plot below shows the evolution of forecast for the grid point with maximum 3-day precipitation valid 11-13 September for the 1x1 degree box outlined in the HRES plots above. The plot includes ensemble (blue box-and-whisker), HRES (red dot) and model climate (red box-and-whisker).
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5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event
- Problem to capture the position of the cut-off low in the medium-range - connected to extra-tropical transition of TC Dorian?