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Internal variability is an intrinsic character of the climate system and it is also present in climate models. The design to run new RCM experiments took into account the intention that the internal variability can be studied. This report present some early investigations on these aspects.
- Synthesis on the existing simulations at M16 (02/10/2019report (28/02/2020)
In this report we review the state of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble as valid at the beginning of 20192020. The report indicates climate change findings what can be deduced with the help of the larger RCM ensemble available. Regular updates of such reports are planned and the document will be published here. updated here.
C3S is aiming to build a EURO-CORDEX ensemble which is as complete as possible. By doing this, C3S will fill some of the missing elements of the EURO-CORDEX GCM-RCM-RCP uncertainty matrix. As we will have more simulations available (and these being complete sub-matrices, for instance), we are in a better position to assess how the full matrix can be reproduced when based on fewer available model simulations. In addition, we can determine how the missing model elements can be built. This unique study gives valuable insights into the optimal design of such ensemble systems in the future.
References
- Kotlarski, S., Keuler, K., Christensen, O. B., Colette, A., Déqué, M., Gobiet, A., Goergen, K., Jacob, D., Lüthi, D., van Meijgaard, E., Nikulin, G., Schär, C., Teichmann, C., Vautard, R., Warrach-Sagi, K., and Wulfmeyer, V.: Regional climate modeling on European scales: a joint standard evaluation of the EURO-CORDEX RCM ensemble, Geosci. Model Dev., 7, 1297–1333, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-1297-2014, 2014.
- Jacob, D., Teichmann, C., Sobolowski, S. et al. Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community. Reg Environ Change 20, 51 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01606-9
- Article using model simulations prepared by C3S funding:
Christensen, O.B., Kjellström, E. Partitioning uncertainty components of mean climate and climate change in a large ensemble of European regional climate model projections. Clim Dyn (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05229-y - Sørland SL, Schär C, Lüthi D, Kjellström E (2018) Bias patterns and climate change signals in GCM-RCM model chains. Environ Res Lett 13(7):074017. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aacc77
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