Evaluation Products
| Product name | Description (established over forecast horizon) | Outputs | Forecasting horizon | Forecast model | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Historical | Forecast Skill | Maximum lead time (in days), up to 30-days ahead, when the GloFAS river discharge forecast skill (CRPSS) is greater than 0.5, evaluated against both persistence and climatology benchmark forecasts with river discharge reanalysis as reference. Detailed results are shown when clicking on individual stations.
| Map Forecast metrics graphs | 30 days | ECMWF-ENS reforecasts (11 ensemble members) |
| Historical | Seasonal forecast skill | Maximum lead time (in weeks), up to the 16 weeks lead time, when the GloFAS river discharge forecast skill (CRPSS) is greater than 0.5, evaluated against the climatology benchmark forecast with river discharge reanalysis as reference. Detailed results are shown when clicking on individual stations. | Map Forecast metrics graphs | 16 weeks | ECMWF-SEAS5 reforecasts (25 ensmble members) |
| Historical | Hydrological model performance | Modified Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and the three decomposition scores (bias and variability ratios and correlation) with monthly mean and daily time series for stations with observations. In addition, the daily GloFAS simulation is also provided for the full reanalysis period together with the flood thresholds. Detailed results are shown when clicking on individual stations, which are coloured according to the KGE values. | Map | NA | Reanalysis |
