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storyline simulations: storyline simulations offer a what-if capability to explore how a weather event we experienced in the recent past would change in a warmer climate. The simulations also allow attribution of weather events to climate change by comparing present-day with pre-industrial storyline simulations of the same event. To constrain simulated weather events, a nudging approach is used to keep the simulated large-scale flow close to ERA5 for the period 2017 – 2023. Processes on smaller scales and thermodynamic processes are free to evolve, which allows scientists to study e.g. how extreme precipitation would change in a warmer world for a weather event observed in present-day conditions. Storyline simulations are fully coupled (ocean + atmosphere) simulations. Initial conditions are taken from ocean-only spinup simulations for 1950 and 2017, and from the coupled IFS-FESOM projection for a +2 °C world.
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