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Two layers show the probability of exceeding the 5-year return period in the EFAS forecasts at different lead time ranges:

  • 5-year exceedance < 48 h indicates the probability of flooding in the following 48 h, a lead time range for which formal notifications are not issued.

Image AddedFigure 1. Example of the layer 5-year exceedance < 48 h on the forecast of June 25 2024 at 12 UTC.


  • 5-year exceedance > 48 h indicates the probability of flooding from lead time 2 to 7 days, when formal notifications are issued.

Image RemovedImage Added

Figure 12. Example of the layer 5-year exceedance > 48 h on the forecast of March 23 June 25 2024 at 00 UTC12 UTC.


Note. For an explanation on the computation of total probabilities, see this link.