Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti
1. Impact
On 9 October torrential rainfall hit parts of Majorca and killed at least 10 people. Locally more than 200 mm of rain was reported.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-45807978
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and short forecasts of 6-hour total precipitation covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plot below shows HRES 12 h total precipitation. Base time 9th October 2018 at 00 UTC and valid on 10th October 2018 at 00 UTC. CDF 24h precipitation in a point close to the station where the maximum precipitation was registered.
The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) covering 7 October 00UTC to 10 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show observations of total precipitation in 24 h and radar image and station reports.
Lightning observations and Baleares radar image at peak time:
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The first plots below shows (not yet) observations of 24-hour precipitation 9 October 06z to 10 October 06z and the following plots HRES forecasts from different initial times valid the same time. The plots also includes MSLP valid at 18UTC on 9 October.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation (9 October).
The panel plot below show Lightning density, EFI CAPE and EFI CAPE-SHEAR for day 2 and severe weather report valid for 9th October 2018. .
Comparison of a the raw ensemble CDF in the maximum precipitation point with the point rainfall in the same point for 12h precipitation forecast. Base time 9th October 2018 and valid at lead time 24 h.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
Below is HARMONIE-AROME (from Aemet) 12 h precipitation forecast for western Mediterranean. Base time 9th October at different runs (00, 06 and 18 UTC).
Below is the ARMONIE (from MeteFrance) 1-hourly precipitation forecast for western Mediterranean. Base time 9th October and valid at 18:00 and 19:00 local time.
4. Experience from general performance/other cases
- The forecast clearly missed the peak intensity of the event