Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus
Picture
1. Impact
On 10 October hurricane Michael made landfall close to Panama City in north-western Florida.
2. Description of the event
The plot below shows a satellite image at the point in time when the cyclone hit land.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plot below shows the central pressure for Michael from 8 October 00UTC to 11 October 00UTC from BestTrack (black) and HRES forecasts (coloured lines). Note that the last HRES forecast (10 October 00UTC), had a worse intensity forecast than earlier forecasts.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show the tracks (ensemble -grey, best track - black), position and intensity on 10 October 18UTC (ensemble - squares, best track - hourglass) in forecasts from 10 October 00UTC (first plot) to 4 October 00UTC (last plot).
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
4. Experience from general performance/other cases