An EFAS Formal Flood Notification is sent out to the affected EFAS partner if at least a 30 % probability is forecasted that one of the two probabilistic forecasts exceeds the 5-year return period level for three consecutive model runs and if the start of the event is more than 48 hours from the run time of the model. Additionally, one of the two deterministic forecast needs to exceed the 5-year return period as well. Formal Flood notifications can only be issued if the catchment area is larger than 2000 km2.
EFAS Formal notifications are sent to partners by e-mail. All partners within transnational basins receive the notification as a notice of a predicted event in the basin.