An EFAS Flash Flood Notification is sent out to the affected EFAS partner if the probability of exceeding the 5-year return period of the ERIC indicator is equal or greater than 30%. Additionally, the lead time for the start of the event, i.e. the time lag between the start of the model run and the point where 30 % of the probabilistic forecasts exceed the 5-year return period threshold, may not be longer than 48 hours. Flash Flood Notifications are sent for catchments smaller than 2000 km2. Those notifications are issued for administrative regions and are sent to the affected partner only since they reflect rather local phenomena, i.e. they are not sent to partners having a share in the concerned river basin.
EFAS Flash Flood Notification email
Besides country and administrative region(s), the predicted peak within next 48 hours and probabilities of the 5- and 20-year return period exceedances based on the COSMO-LEPS forecast are indicated in the email. Additional information includes forecasts date and affected area susceptible to landslides.
Forecast date refers to the model run when criteria were fulfilled. Using the links in the e-mail, the partner can navigate to the EFAS IS, EFAS wiki or to the feedback collection (see section 4.4). As for Formal and Informal Notifications, only one notification is issued for each event.