Two layers show the probability of exceeding the 5-year return period in the EFAS forecasts at different lead time ranges:
- 5-year exceedance < 48 h indicates the probability of flooding in the following 48 h, a lead time range for which formal notifications are not issued.
Figure 1. Example of the layer 5-year exceedance < 48 h on the forecast of June 25 2024 at 12 UTC.
- 5-year exceedance > 48 h indicates the probability of flooding from lead time 2 to 7 days, when formal notifications are issued.
Figure 2. Example of the layer 5-year exceedance > 48 h on the forecast of June 25 2024 at 12 UTC.
Note. For an explanation on the computation of total probabilities, see this link.