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 Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus


1. Impact

On 21 December extreme rainfall affected northern Sri Lanka, affecting more than 100000 people.

2. Description of the event

Rainfall observations (from, Figures from Sri Lanka’s Department of Meteorology):

365.1 mm in 24 hours Maankulam, Mullaitivu district - December 21 to December 22, 2018
302.1 mm in 24 hours Oddusddan - December 21 to December 22, 2018
237.3 mm in 24 hours Kilinochchi - December 21 to December 22, 2018
220.2 mm in 24 hours Elephant Pass, Pachchilapalli, Sri Lanka - December 21 to December 22, 2018
201.2 mm in 24 hours Anuradhapura - December 21 to December 22, 2018

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts ranging 19 December 00UTC to 22 December 00UTC. An area of precipitation propagated westwards over Indian Ocean during these days.

3. Predictability


3.1 Data assimilation


3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour accumulated precipitation 21 December 00UTC to 22 October 00UTC in forecasts with different initial times. The MSLP valid at 21 December 12UTC is included as well. Moderate rainfall (20-30 mm/24h) with possibilities of extreme rainfall was indicated in HRES forecasts from 17 December 12UTC and onwards.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation valid 21 December. High SOT values start to appears in the forecast from 18 December north of Sri Lanka, indicating that some members have extreme rainfall.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material

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