Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Bojan
1. Impact
On 4-5 November severe rainfall hit Bosnia and resulted in floodings.
Floodlist entry: https://floodlist.com/europe/bosnia-floods-november-2021
2. Description of the event
The plots below show analyses of z500 (contour) and T850 (shade) from 31 October 00UTC to 6 November 00UTC, every 24 hour. On 3-4 November a deep trough developed over western Mediterranean bringing moist air towards central Italy and the Balkans.
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts from 2 November 00UTC to 6 November 00UTC every 12h.
3. Predictability
3.1 Data assimilation
3.2 HRES
The plots below show observations from SYNOP (first plot) and HRES forecasts of 72-hour precipitation valid 3 November 00UTC - 6 November 00UTC, from different initial dates. The highest observation is found in the mountains south of Sarajevo with 150mm/72h.
3.3 ENS
The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation 3-5 October, from different initial times.
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 72-hour precipitation valid 3 November 00UTC - 6 November 00UTC for the 1x1 degree box over south-eastern Bosnia. The forecast values are average of the observation positions as seen in the map under HRES sub-section above. Mean of obs - green, HRES –red, ENS - blue box-and-whisker, Model climate – red box-and-whisker. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1200 forecasts.
3.4 Monthly forecasts
3.5 Comparison with other centres
72-hour precipitation from 3 November 00UTC for models participating in SEE-MHEWS-A. IFS (1st), Aladin (2nd), ICON (3rd) and NMMB (4th). All models are initialised from ECMWF analysis.
