Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Esti, Linus

Picture

1. Impact

• At least 3 people have lost their life and 5 more are lost.
• Alicante Airport was forced to close for 24 hours due to the potential effect that Storm Gloria could have on the fire-damaged transport hub.
• Heavy snowfall has seen more than 1,000km of roads closed while in Valencia houses on the coastal frontline were evacuated as huge waves rolled as the storm hit on Sunday.
• Some coastal areas were really affected, (as Javea in Valencia region, in the photo)

2. Description of the event

The plots below show satellite images from 20January 00UTC to 21 January 00UTC every 6 hour. (source: yr.no)

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour precipitation forecasts every 12h hour between 18 and 21 January.

The plots below show analyses of z500 and t850 every 12h hour between 18 and 21 January.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show observations of 24-hour maximum wind gusts valid 20 January 00UTC to 21 January 00UTC (first plot) and HRES forecasts valid at the same period. The forecast plots also includes MSLP valid 20 January 12UTC.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI and SOT for wind gusts valid 20 January.

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation valid 20 January.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material

6.1. HYDROLOGICAL FORECAST:

Flood reporting points in Spain and France mediterranean coast and estimated discharge and return periods for Jucar river (Spain) with base time on  20th January 2020.

6.2. OBSERVATIONS PRECIPITATION