Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Ervin, Linus

1. Impact

The cyclone Ellen hit the south-coast of Ireland on 19-20 August. The cyclone seem to have produced 89 mph (143 kph or 40 mps) in Cork (the maximum in land) and also 112 mph was observed by a buoy near the shore.  The cyclone seems to have produced a string jet feature around midnight between 19-20 August. You can get further info e.g. from these articles (read1 and read2).

2. Description of the event

The plots below show satellite images every 3rd hour from 19 August 12UTC to 21 August 00UTC.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material