Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Picture

1. Impact

In March 2021 eastern Australia was hit by extreme rainfall.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-australia-56476998

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation. The first plot is from 18 March 00UTC and last 21 March 12UTC, every 12 hours.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show HRES forecasts of 3-day precipitation 19-21 March.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI for 3-day precipitation for forecasts valid 19-21 March.

The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 3-day precipitation 19-21 March averaged inside the box around Sidney outlined in the plots above. The plot includes HRES (red dot), ENS control (purple dot), ENS distribution (blue boxes, median square) and model climate distribution (red boxes).

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show the precipitation anomaly for forecasts valid 15-21 March.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material