Status: Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

1. Impact

On 5 February tropical cyclone Batsirai made landfall on Madagascar. The cyclone had earlier affected Mauritius and La Reunion.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-60264389

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plot below shows surface winds from a SAR image from Sentinel (left) and a short (15-hour) HRES forecast. The data is valid for 4 February 15UTC.

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 5 February 00UTC (first plot) to 26 January 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 5 February 00UTC. HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material