Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/11/05/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/11/06/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2013/11/07/sc/

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 HRES

 For high-resolution ps-file, click here.

3.2 ENS

3.3 Monthly forecasts

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

• Megi, Bopha: super-typhoons with far too high minimum pressure
• Francesco: Why did the model produce such a low pressure for Francesco and not for Haiyan?

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

• Good and consistent forecasts of the track

• Far to high minimum pressure

6. Additional material