Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, ..

1. Impact

Around 26 November an extra-tropcial cyclone named Bettina moved northward over the Black Sea with extreme winds towards Crimea. The cyclone also brought heavy snowfall to several countries e.g Bulgaria.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–24_European_windstorm_season

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 24 November 00UTC to 27 November 00UTC, every 12th hour.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts (26 November 00UTC - 27 November 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times. The box marks 0.5x0.5 degree centred over the west coast of Crimea.

3.3 ENS

The plots below shows EFI for 1-day maximum wind gusts (26 November)  from different initial dates.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material