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Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Esti, ..

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

1. Impact

2. Description of the event

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the tropical cyclone track for TC Belal for the operational ECMWF forecasts from 15 January 00UTC (first plot) to 8 January 00UTC (last plot). The symbols shows the position on 15 January 00UTC (hourglass for BestTrack). HRES (red), ENS CF (blue), ENS PF (grey) and BestTrack (black).

Forecast User > 202401 - Tropical Cyclone - Belal > track_0001_02S_20240115_00_vd20240115_00.ps.gif

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

3.6 Machine-learning models

The plots below shows MSLP and 850hPa wind speed valid 15 January 00UTC from different lead times.

IFS

Forecast User > 202401 - Tropical Cyclone - Belal > belal_ifs.png

AIFS

Forecast User > 202401 - Tropical Cyclone - Belal > belal_aifs.png

Graphcast

Forecast User > 202401 - Tropical Cyclone - Belal > belal_graphcast.png

PanguWeather

Forecast User > 202401 - Tropical Cyclone - Belal > belal_pangu.png

Fourcastnet

Forecast User > 202401 - Tropical Cyclone - Belal > belal_fcnt.png

FuXi

Forecast User > 202401 - Tropical Cyclone - Belal > belal_fuxi.png

ML centres comparison

Forecast User > 202401 - Tropical Cyclone - Belal > Slide21.png

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material