Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

1. Impact

On 21-22 January the windstorm Isha hit Ireland and Great Britain with strong wind and caused 4 fatalities.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023–24_European_windstorm_season

2. Description of the event

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 20 January 00UTC to 23 January 00UTC, every 12th hour.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour maximum wind gusts (21 January 00UTC - 22 January 00UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.

3.3 ENS

The plots below shows EFI for 1-day maximum wind gusts (21 January)  from different initial dates.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material