The global production system is used to produce the daily forecasts of greenhouse gases, i.e. carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) across the globe. Satellite observations of atmospheric composition are merged with a detailed computer simulation of the atmosphere using a method called data assimilation. The resulting analyses, i.e. maps of atmospheric composition, are used as initial conditions for the daily forecasts of atmospheric composition of long-lived greenhouse gases (i.e. CO2 and CH4). Analyses and forecasts for greenhouse gases are produced once a day. The analysis has a resolution of approximately 25km and it is produced 4 days behind real-time due to latency of satellite retrievals. The high-resolution forecast is run separately a few hours behind real time, with initial conditions based on a 4-day forecast of the analysis experiment, and it is also run at higher resolution (~9km). The lower cost of the CO₂ and CH₄ makes it possible to produce the analyses and forecasts at a higher resolution than the CAMS forecast of reactive gases and aerosols (~40km).
The model used in the CAMS Global greenhouse gas forecasts is the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) that also produces ECMWF weather forecasts, but with additional modules of greenhouse gases that have been developed within CAMS and precursor projects GEMS and MACC. The IFS model documentation for various model cycles can be found on https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/documentation-and-support/changes-ecmwf-model/ifs-documentation. Please note that the IFS cycle changes during the years, and this page documents the current operational cycle 49r1 (IFS Documentation CY49R1 - Part VIII: Atmospheric Composition). The main components of the IFS model and data assimilation system for CO2 and CH4 are listed below (see References and IFS documentation link provided above for further details).
Model
The following processes of atmospheric composition are considered in the IFS model:
The high-resolution forecast also includes carbon monoxide (CO) as a tracer with a simplified linear CO scheme based on Claeyman et al. (2010). It is initialised each day from the operational CAMS atmospheric composition analysis, which includes reactive species and aerosols (Implementation of IFS cycle 48r1 for CAMS#DocumentVersionsDocumentversions).
Prescribed emissions and surface fluxes
Data assimilation system
The IFS uses a four-dimensional variational data assimilation method (4D-VAR) for the assimilation of a wide range of meteorological observations as well as satellite retrievals of atmospheric composition. The GHG analysis configuration has been documented by Massart et al. (2014, 2016) and Agusti-Panareda et al. (2023). To enhance the accuracy of the analysis, a new background error matrix (B) has been created for each species (CO2 and CH4) using an ensemble data assimilation (EDA) method. This new EDA B matrix is built using 10 ensemble members through the perturbations of model physics tendencies, sea surface temperature, and observations. It is worth noting that until the last 48R1 cycle, the B matrix (called NMC-based B-matrix) was generated using forecast differences at different lead times (Parrish and Derber, 1992). The first results using the EDA-based B-matrix and the old B-matrix (NMC-based B-matrix) were presented recently as a poster at the ICOS science conference (Koffi et al., 2024).
Observations assimilated
Satellite observations are used by CAMS to constrain the global forecast model, ensuring the forecasts are as accurate as possible. The process of merging the numerical forecast model with the observations is called data assimilation. CAMS produces global services in two modes: real-time chemistry and aerosol and real-time long-lived greenhouse gases.
The CAMS GHG production system uses currently satellite (GOSAT/TANSO, METOP-C/IASI) retrievals in 4D-Var data assimilation system to constrain the initial atmospheric state. Two categories of observations listed below (Table 1) are provided in near real-time (2-4 days behind). Column-averaged concentration retrievals of CO2 (XCO2) and CH4 (XCH4) using TANSO/GOSAT measurements are provided by the University of Bremen (UB) and SRON, respectively. The "Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique" (LMD) provides the mid-tropospheric columns of CH4 (MT-CH4) and of CO2 (MT-CO2) using both IASI/METOP and AMSU measurements.
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Implementation date | Cycle | Summary of changes | Resolution/Resolution change | New species | ||
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12 November 2024 | 49R1 |
Impact of CY49R1:
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27 February 2023 | 48R1 |
| Horizontal: 9 km, Vertical: 137 levels |
The data is now available from the Atmosphere Data Store (ADS), either interactively through its download web form or programmatically using the CDS API service:
CAMS global greenhouse gases forecasts
As this analysis of greenhouse gases is not available close to real time, it is not provided in the ADS. Instead, the high-resolution forecast is run a few hours behind real time, with initial conditions based on a 4-day forecast of the analysis experiment.
Users with direct access to MARS can browse the data on the MARS catalogue.
CAMS Global greenhouse gases forecasts | CAMS Global greenhouse gases analysis | |
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Stream | oper | oper |
expver | 0001 | 0011 |
class | gg | gg |
Type |
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Levtype |
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CAMS Global greenhouse forecasts:
00 UTC forecast data availability guaranteed by 10:00 UTC
It is possible that the data will be available earlier but without guarantee.
Variations in delivery times may occur due to the non-operational nature of the ADS service, as issues may arise which cause delays
CAMS Global greenhouse gases forecast and analysis have resolution of approximately 9 km (around 0.10 degrees for regular lat/lon grid) and 25 km (approximately 0.25 degrees), respectively. The data are archived either as spectral coefficients with a triangular truncation of Tco1279 or on a reduced Gaussian grid with a resolution of O1280 for the GHG forecast and Tco399 (O400) for the GHG analysis.
PLEASE NOTE: CAMS Global atmospheric composition forecasts data available from the ADS has been pre-interpolated to a regular 0.1°x 0.1° latitude/longitude grid. The keyword 'grid' is not supported in CDS API requests on the ADS. |
The CAMS Global greenhouse gases 5-day forecasts run daily from 00 UTC and the data are available every 3 hours.
Please note data are available only from March 2024. |
Model level fields are in GRIB2 format. All other fields are in GRIB1, unless otherwise indicated. NetCDF format is available on ADS but it is experimental.
Pressure levels: 1000/950/925/900/850/800/700/600/500/400/300/250/200/150/100/70/50/30/20/10/7/5/3/2/1
Model levels: 1/to/137, which are described at L137 model level definitions.
Please note that meteorological parameters have an embargo period of 5 days to the present. If you need meteorological parameters in real time please have a look at the ECMWF open data: real-time forecasts from IFS and AIFS |
Name | Units | Shortname | Param ID | fc | an | Note |
CO2 column-mean molar fraction | ppm | tcco2 | 210064 | x | x | This variable is also known as XCO2 |
CH4 column-mean molar fraction | ppb | tcch4 | 210065 | x | x | This variable is also known as XCH4 |
Total column Carbon monoxide | kg m-2 | tcco | 210127 | x | ||
Accumulated Carbon Dioxide Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) | kg m-2 | aco2nee | 228080 | x | NEE is computed as a sum of GPP and Reco (see rows below). This flux has been corrected with the Biogenic Adjustment Scheme. NEE = corrected GPP + corrected Reco | |
Flux of Carbon Dioxide Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) | kg m-2 s-1 | fco2nee | 228083 | x | NEE is computed as a sum of GPP and Reco (see rows below). This flux has been corrected with the Biogenic Adjustment Scheme. NEE = corrected GPP + corrected Reco | |
Accumulated Carbon Dioxide Gross Primary Production (GPP) | kg m-2 | aco2gpp | 228081 | x | Uncorrected flux. For corrected flux, apply the scaling factor gppbfas to GPP: Corrected GPP = Uncorrected GPP * gppbfas | |
Flux of Carbon Dioxide Gross Primary Production (GPP) | kg m-2 s-1 | fco2gpp | 228084 | x | Uncorrected flux. For corrected flux, apply the scaling factor gppbfas to GPP: Corrected GPP = Uncorrected GPP* gppbfas | |
Accumulated Carbon Dioxide Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) | kg m-2 | aco2rec | 228082 | x | Uncorrected flux. For corrected flux, apply the scaling factor recbfas to Reco: Corrected Reco = Uncorrected Reco * recbfas | |
Flux of Carbon Dioxide Ecosystem Respiration (Reco) | kg m-2 s-1 | fco2rec | 228085 | x | Uncorrected flux. For corrected flux, apply the scaling factor recbfas to Reco: Corrected Reco = Uncorrected Reco * recbfas | |
GPP coefficient from Biogenic Flux Adjustment System | dimensionless | gppbfas | 228078 | x | Scaling factor for GPP in Biogenic Flux Adjustment Scheme (BFAS) scheme (Agusti-Panareda et al., 2016 for further details) | |
Rec coefficient from Biogenic Flux Adjustment System | dimensionless | recbfas | 228079 | x | Scaling factor for GPP in Biogenic Flux Adjustment Scheme (BFAS) scheme (see Agusti-Panareda et al., 2016 for further details) | |
2m dewpoint temperature | K | 2d | 168 | X | X | |
2m temperature | K | 2t | 167 | X | X | |
10m u-component of wind | m s-1 | 10u | 165 | X | X | |
10m v-component of wind | m s-1 | 10v | 166 | X | X | |
10m wind gust in the last 3 hours | m s-1 | 10fg3 | 228028 | X | X | |
Boundary layer height | m | blh | 159 | X | ||
Cloud base height | m | cbh | 228023 | X | ||
Convective available potential energy | J kg-1 | cape | 59 | X | ||
Convective inhibition | J kg-1 | cin | 228001 | X | X | |
Convective precipitation | m | cp | 143 | X | X | |
Evaporation | m of water equivalent | e | 182 | X | ||
Friction velocity | m s-1 | zust | 228003 | X | ||
Height of convective cloud top | m | hcct | 228046 | X | ||
High cloud cover | (0 - 1) | hcc | 188 | X | X | |
Lake cover | (0 - 1) | cl | 26 | X | X | |
Land-sea mask | (0 - 1) | lsm | 172 | X | ||
Large-scale precipitation | m | lsp | 142 | X | ||
Leaf area index, high vegetation | m2 m-2 | lai_hv | 67 | X | X | |
Leaf area index, low vegetation | m2 m-2 | lai_lv | 66 | X | X | |
Low cloud cover | (0 - 1) | lcc | 186 | X | X | |
Mean sea level pressure | Pa | msl | 151 | |||
Medium cloud cover | (0 - 1) | mcc | 187 | X | X | |
Potential evaporation | m | pev | 228251 | X | ||
Precipitation type | code table (4.201) | ptype | 260015 | X | ||
Sea surface temperature | ||||||
Sea-ice cover | (0 - 1) | ci | 31 | X | X | |
Skin reservoir content | m of water equivalent | |||||
Skin temperature | K | skt | 235 | X | X | |
Snow depth | m of water equivalent | sd | 141 | X | X | |
Surface geopotential | m2s-2 | ~ | 162051 | X | ||
Surface latent heat flux | J m-2 | slhf | 147 | X | ||
Surface pressure | Pa | sp | 134 | X | ||
Surface net solar radiation | J m-2 | ssr | 176 | X | ||
Surface net solar radiation, clear sky | J m-2 | ssrc | 210 | X | ||
Surface sensible heat flux | J m-2 | sshf | 146 | X | X | |
Total cloud cover | (0 - 1) | tcc | 164 | |||
Total column cloud ice water | kg m-2 | tciw | 79 | X | X | |
Total column cloud liquid water | kg m-2 | tclw | 78 | X | X | |
Total column rain water | kg m-2 | tcrw | 228089 | X | X | |
Total column snow water | kg m-2 | tcsw | 228090 | X | X | |
Total column supercooled liquid water | kg m-2 | tcslw | 228088 | X | ||
Total column water | kg m-2 | tcw | 136 | X | X | |
Total precipitation | m | tp | 228 | X | ||
Vertically integrated moisture divergence | kg m-2 | vimd | 213 | X |
Name | Units | Shortname | Param ID | fc | an | Note |
Carbon dioxide mass mixing ratio | kg kg-1 | co2 | 210061 | X | X | |
Methane | kg kg-1 | ch4 | 210062 | X | X | |
Carbon monoxide mass mixing ratio | kg kg-1 | co | 210123 | X | ||
Fraction of cloud cover | (0 - 1) | cc | 248 | X | X | Data available only on model levels |
Geopotential | m2 s-2 | z | 129 | X | X | Only available on model level 1 |
Logarithm of surface pressure | Numeric | lnsp | 152 | X | X | Only available on model level 1 |
Potential vorticity | K m2 kg-1 s-1 | pv | 60 | X | X | Data available only on pressure levels |
Relative humidity | % | r | 157 | X | X | Data available only on pressure levels |
Specific cloud ice water content | kg kg-1 | ciwc | 247 | X | X | Data available only on model levels |
Specific cloud liquid water content | kg kg-1 | clwc | 246 | X | X | Data available only on model levels |
Specific humidity | ||||||
Specific rain water content | kg kg-1 | crwc | 75 | X | X | Data available only on model levels |
Specific snow water content | kg kg-1 | cswc | 76 | X | X | Data available only on model levels |
Temperature | K | t | 130 | X | X | |
U-component of wind | m s-1 | u | 131 | X | X | |
V-component of wind | m s-1 | v | 132 | X | X | |
Vertical velocity | Pa s-1 | w | 135 | X | X |
The global forecasting system is continually being evaluated to ensure the output meets the expected requirements. Comprehensive Evaluation and Quality Assurance (EQA) reports are provided on a quarterly basis. Before each upgrade of the global forecasting system, the new system is tested and evaluated, and a so-called "e-suite EQA report" is produced. All reports are available here.
CAMS uses a multitude of independent data sets to routinely monitor its global forecasts. It works with various data providers, acquiring the observations with appropriate timeliness and generating graphics that show the differences between the forecasts and the independent observations. See at https://atmosphere.copernicus.eu/charts/packages/cams_monitoring/
Every day, CAMS provides also charts of the five-day forecasts of greenhouse gases here.
Please refer to the "References" section on the catalogue entry page of this dataset in the Atmosphere Data Store (ADS) as it provides the DOI number as well as details on dataset citation and attribution.
X. Yin, P.C. Struik, C3 and C4 photosynthesis models: An overview from the perspective of crop modelling/ NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences 57 (2009) 27–38
This document has been produced in the context of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS). The activities leading to these results have been contracted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, operator of CAMS on behalf of the European Union (Delegation Agreement signed on 11/11/2014 and Contribution Agreement signed on 22/07/2021). All information in this document is provided "as is" and no guarantee or warranty is given that the information is fit for any particular purpose. The users thereof use the information at their sole risk and liability. For the avoidance of all doubt , the European Commission and the European Centre for Medium - Range Weather Forecasts have no liability in respect of this document, which is merely representing the author's view. |