Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

1. Impact

On 28 -29 July the Latvia (and neighbouring countries) was hit by extreme rainfall. 

2. Description of the event

The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 24-hour rainfall on 28 July 12UTC  - 29 July 12UTC in a 0.25x0.25 box  centred on Riga, Latvia (57N, 24.1E).

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 26 July 12UTC to 29 July 12UTC, every 12th hour.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

The plots below show 24-hour precipitation (29 July 12UTC  - 30 July 12UTC) in observations (first plot) concatenated 9km short forecasts (second plot) and ENS control forecasts with different lead times.

The plots below show forecasts from DestinE.

The plots below show forecasts from AIFS.

3.3 ENS

The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for 24-hour precipitation for the box outlined in the plots above.

Observation - green hourglass

Analysis - green dot 
ENS control–red
DestinE4.4km - purple dot

AIFS - cyan dot

ENS - blue box-and-whisker
ENS 49r1 - pink box-and-whisker

Model climate (48r1) – cyan box-and-whisker 

Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material