Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Ervin

1. Impact

During July 2024 south-eastern Europe (Hungary, Serbia, Romania and other) was hit by an exceptionally long heatwave.

2. Description of the event

The evaluation of this event will focus on a 5-day period (13-17 July) for a region covering the Danube plain from Hungary to Serbia (44N-47N, 19E-22E)

The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 10 July to 20 July.

The plot below show daily mean (based on 00 and 12UTC) temperature over the Danube plain  based on ERA5. Daily values (thin), 7-day running mean (thick) and daily climatology (dashed).

The plot below shows the analysis of 5-day temperature for 13-17 July.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI for 5-day temperature 13-17 July.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plots below show forecasts of weekly temperature anomalies for 8-14 July.

The plots below show forecasts of weekly z500 anomalies for 8-14 July.

The plots below show forecasts of weekly temperature anomalies for 15-21 July.

The plots below show forecasts of weekly z500 anomalies for 15-21 July.

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material