Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus

1. Impact

During the summer 2024 northern Canada was hit by several heatwaves, with severe forest fires as a result.

2. Description of the event

The evaluation of this event will focus on a 3-day period (9-11 August) for a 0.5/0.5 degree area around Bathaust (66.8N 108W).

The plot below shows the analysis of 3-day temperature for 9-11 August.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show EFI for 3-day temperature 9-11 July.

The plot below show the forecast evolution for 3-day mean temperature for a 0.5/0.5 degree area around Bathaust (66.8N 108W).

Analysis - green dot 
ENS control–red

ENS - blue box-and-whisker

Model climate (48r1) – cyan box-and-whisker 

Ensemble mean as black diamonds. Triangle marks the maximum in the model climate based on 1800 forecasts.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

The plot below shows a time-series of weekly 2-metre temperature anomalies for Northern Canada (land points in 60N-80N, 140W-100W), for ERA5 (black) and forecasts with different lead times (coloured lines).

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material