Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, ..

1. Impact

On 19 October Bologna was hit by severe rainfall, causing flooding in the city.

2. Description of the event

The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 24-hour rainfall on 19 October 00UTC  - 20 October 00UTC for a 0.25x0.25 degree box centred on Bologna (centred on 44.5N, 11.3E).

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 17 October 00UTC to 20 October 00UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 16 October to 20 October.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6. Additional material