Note: HRES and Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) are scientifically, structurally and computationally identical.  With effect from Cy49r1, Ensemble Control Forecast (ex-HRES) output is equivalent to HRES output where shown in the diagrams.   At the time of the diagrams, HRES had resolution of 9km and ensemble members had a resolution of 18km.

Derivation of forecast screen level temperatures (T2m)

Model output of forecast of screen level temperatures (T2m) is not a direct output from the atmospheric model.  

Instead, screen level temperatures (T2m) are derived by interpolation between: 

• the model forecast temperature at the lowest model level (L137 at 10m) and 
• the model forecast temperature of the underlying surface (the skin temperature).  

The process is explained in the section on modelling and assimilating 2m temperatures.

Users should assess the potential for deficiencies in low-level parameters and adjust as necessary.

Additional Sources of Information

(Note: In older material there may be references to issues that have subsequently been addressed)

• Read more on "Reducing surface temperature errors at coastlines".
• Read more on Bias in IFS.
• Read more about improved 2m temperature forecasts in the 2024 upgrade (Cy49r1)

(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)