Creation of SUBS-M-Climate

The SUBS-M-Climate is derived from a set of sub-seasonal range re-forecasts created using the same calendar start dates over several years for data times either side of the time of the sub-seasonal ensemble run itself.  The re-forecast runs are at the same resolution as the sub-seasonal medium range run itself and run over the 46-day sub-seasonal range ensemble period. 

There is merit in examining the real-time performance of a forecasting system.   But the sample sizes created for one system are far too small to conclude anything about its true performance levels.  Re-forecasts are used to increase the available data to produce a model climate.   The results of forecast system may be compared with this model climate.

Re-forecasts are a fundamental component of all seasonal forecasting system; they have two applications:

• sub-seasonal range forecast verification metrics are based on the re-forecasts.
  
• re-forecasts allow computation of the SUBS-M-climate which allows actual forecasts to be converted into an anomaly format.   Forecasts in terms of anomalies relative to a model climate (rather than relative to the observed climatology) mean that some calibration for model bias and drift into the products is incorporated.

Selection of sub-seasonal range re-forecasts

The set of re-forecasts is made up from:

• a set of re-forecasts using the same calendar start dates for each of the last 20 years.  Re-forecasts are made every two days during each month on 1/3/5/7/9/11/13/15/17/19/21/23/25/27/29/31 (excluding 29 February).
• three consecutive re-forecasts (covering a 1 week period), the middle one of which corresponds to the preceding Monday or Thursday that is closest to the actual ensemble run date.
• each re-forecast is from an 11-member ensemble (1 control and 10 perturbed members) run over the 46-day ensemble forecast period.

In total, each set of re-forecasts consists of 20 years x 3 runs x 11 ensemble members = 660 re-forecast values.  These are available for each forecast parameter, forecast lead-time, calendar start date, location, at forecast intervals of 6 hours.  These are used to define the SUBS-M-climate.

A lower number of re-forecasts than for evaluating M-climate is justified because the tails are less important and should not be so prone to having a reduced sample size.

The SUBS-M-climate is used in association with the sub-seasonal range ensemble forecast:

• to present the day15 to day46 ensemble meteograms with the sub-seasonal range climate (SUBS-M-climate).
• to highlight significant anomalies of forecast 2m temperature, wind speed, cloudiness and precipitation from the norm for a given location and time of year.  

Different reference periods for M-Climate and SUBS-M-Climate

ECMWF uses different reference periods but essentially the same re-forecast runs to build the M-Climate and the SUBS-M-Climate.   The key difference is that those runs are grouped and used in different ways:  

• For shorter ranges, the priority is the best possible capture of the climatological distribution of the tails (e.g.  extreme forecast index (EFI) and shift of tails (SOT)).  This can be better achieved using a re-forecast span of 5 weeks (1980 re-forecast values).  
• For longer ranges, the priority is the correct representation of seasonal cycles.  This can be better achieved by using a span of 1 week (660 re-forecast values).  The tails should not be so prone to having a reduced sample size.

Note before Cy41r1 in spring 2015, the M-climate was constructed from only 500 re-forecasts was more prone to sampling errors and as a result.

(FUG Associated with Cy49r1)