Earlier this month the suite of real-time 'Cyclone Database' forecast products offered to users by ECMWF was updated. This came about as part of a long-standing collaboration with the UK Met Office.

Two new options have been added. These are based on the concept of 'front density' - i.e. as derived by overlaying objective fronts from all medium-range ensemble members (as on "front spaghetti" charts). 

The products aim to show the following in particular:

• How consistent the frontal structures are between members (aka 'frontal spread'), 
• How representative the Control run (ex-HRES) is, and 
• What would be the 'most representative member' for a given lead time if it is not the Control run. The most representative member is the member whose frontal positions best reflect the front density maxima, within the domain 40°W-40°E, 30°N-70°N.

Along with map-format products various graph options are included beneath. These also place the latest forecast into a historical context. 

To see the new products use this link and select the two 'Fronts Probabilities' options from the right-hand dropdown menu.

By referencing the text added to the map and graph plots users should find these new products fairly self-explanatory. However, additional user-focussed guidance will be added on separate web pages in 2025.