Material from: Linus, Ivan, ...


 

Discussed in the following Daily reports:



1. Overview

Storm Éowyn brought on 24 January extreme winds to Ireland and western parts of the UK. Wind gusts peaked at 51 m/s on the western Irish coast in Mace Head where mean wind of 38 m/s between 04:00 and 05:00 UTC and an hour earlier, a mean wind of 38 m/s was recorded (the station stopped reporting after 05UTC). Inland Connaught Airport has recoded a maximum wind gust of 43 m/s while other stations in Ireland reported 35 m/s. 


https://www.irishtimes.com/ireland/2025/01/23/how-will-storm-eowyn-impact-the-west-of-ireland-what-to-expect-from-met-eireanns-danger-to-life-warning/


https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/storm-eowyn-windstorm-ireland-bomb-cyclone-uk-north-atlantic-europe-mk/

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

Wind gusts:  24-hour maximum wind gusts on 24 January for a 0.25x0.25 box around Mace Head, Sweden (53.3N, 9.9W).

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 22 January 00UTC to 25 January 00UTC, every 12th hour.

2.3 Observations

Water-vapour satellite images from Meteosat, every 3rd hour.

Sounding 24 January 00UTC from Valencia


2.4 Climatological perspective


3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

 

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event (see Section 2.1 for definition)

Observations and analysis for the event


Control forecast

DestinE

AIFS deterministic

Wind gusts not available for AIFS.

AIFS ensemble

Wind gusts not available for AIFS.

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI and SOT for 1-day wind gusts on 24 January

Forecast Evolution plot for the event (see Section 2.1)

Legend:
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
ENS distribution - blue
ENS m-climate - cyan

Cyclone feature plots

The plots below show cyclone feature plots for minimum surface pressure valid 24 January 00UTC from different initial times.

3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

 The plots below show the weekly average ensemble mean of z500 valid 20-26 December.

3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Hazard Forecasts


5. Dedicated Experiments


6. Event Summary

6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event


6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases


7. Additional material