Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from: Linus, Ervin,
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
In the beginning of February, Queensland (Australia) was hit by extreme rainfall. At least two people died, thousands had to be evacuated, large areas of land flooded, etc. See for example this article: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-04/north-queensland-flooding-townsville-rainfall-flood-peak/104893294. Here, they also mention the highest observed precip totals, topping with 1936 mm in just 3 days in the coastal area just north from Townsville.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cp3j2w41qkko
The evaluation of the rainfall will focus on 72-hour rainfall on 31 January 00UTC - 3 February 00UTC for the box 18.25S-19.25S, 145.8E -146.8 (see maps below for outline).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 30 January 00UTC to 3 February 00UTC, every 12th hour.
24-hour and 168-hour gridded observations in Queensland (roughly 2 Feb calendar day and added the 6 pervious days).
Observations an analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9km)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km)
AIFS single v0.2.1 (0.25 degree resolution)
AIFS single v1.0 (0.25 degree resolution)
Step 0-72 missing
AIFS ensemble (1 degree resolution)
EFI
Forecast Evolution plot for the event
Legend:
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
AIFS v0.2.1 - cyan dot
AIFS v1.0 - brown dot
ENS distribution - blue
ENS-AIFS distribution - grey
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
The plots below show ensemble mean weekly average of precipitation 27 January - 2 February in forecasts from different initial dates (all Mondays).
