Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from: Linus
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
On 7 March torrential rainfall fell over Bahia Blanca in Argentina, leading to at least 11 casualties. The city recorded 210 mm/6h. It is about 1/3 of the normal annual rainfall for that station. It followed an already very wet start of March for the region.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cvg1vd7xywpo
The event is defined as the 24-hour rainfall for the period 6 March 18UTC to 7 March 18UTC for a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on Bahia Blanca (38.7S, 62.3W).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 5 March 00UTC to 8 March 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 4 March 00UTC to 8 March 00UTC, every 24th hour.
Radionsondes from (ID: 87623, Name: Santa Rosa Airp., Lat-Lon: -36.59; -64.28; height: 191m) and first guess and analysis from 2025-03-06 12UTC (left) and 2025-03-07 12UTC (right).
Note that only precipitation over land is included in the plots.
Observations for the event
SYNOP observations (left) and concatinated analyses (right) for the event.
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS deterministic (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS ensemble (AIFS diffusion ensemble ~1 degree resolution)
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
Forecast Evolution plot
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
ENS distribution - blue
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle