Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from: Linus, Mohamed
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
On 20 May a severe rainfall event affected the South East of France. The Lavandou and Vidauban communes (Near Marseille) was the most affected. Observations received via GTS didn't exceed 90 mm. However, reports from the media indicated totals exceeding 255 mm in Lavandou and 186mm in Vidauban. The event was also associated with severe wind gusts. 3 people sadly lost their lives. The heavy rainfall was associated with a convective cell (embedded in a larger cut-off low) that formed in the Mediterranean and moved North Eastward.
The evaluation of the precipitation will focus on 24-hour rainfall on 20 May 06UTC - 21 May 06UTC for a 0.25 degree box centred on (43.4N, 6.42E).
The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6 hour rainfall from 18 May 00UTC to 21 May 00UTC, every 12th hour.
The plots below show analyses of z500 and T850 from 17 May 00UTC to 21 May 00UTC, every 24th hour.
Observations inside the 0.25 box:
stnid,latitude,longitude,stnid,elevation,value_0,count
33000870,43.316833,6.358333,33000870,147.0,111.5,1
7675,43.38,6.39,7675,82.0,84.2,1
33000825,43.383167,6.386167,33000825,80.0,84.2,1
33001725,43.386667,6.525,33001725,282.0,177.9,1
33000862,43.451,6.470833,33000862,55.0,58.8,1
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
EFI and SOT for 24-hour precipitation valid 20 May.
Forecast Evolution plot
See event definition in Section 2.1.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark-green dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS-CRPS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle