Discussed in the following Daily reports:
Material from: Linus, Mohamed
Discussed in the following Daily reports: |
During the last days of June a heatwave affected Morocco and large parts of Western Europe. In Morocco June records were broken in many places in Morocco and Spain. Few broken records are: Granado in Spain (New record 46C observed on 28 June, previous record 45.2C), Casablanca (New record 39.5C observed on 28 June, previous record 38.6 C), Larache (New record 43.8 observed on 28 June, previous record 42.9 C), Ben Guerir (New record 46.4C observed on 28 June, previous record 45.3 C), Sidi Slimane (New record 47.1 C observed on 28 June, previous record 46.9 C). The heat wave was associated with a high pressure system over North Africa and extending to central Europe. This synoptic pattern allow hot air from the Sahara to travel northward. When crossing the Atlas Mountains, the hot air gets even hotter on the western side due to the foehn effect and lack of moisture.
The event is the same as evaluated in 202506 - Heatwave - Western Europe , but we split the event into two pages to make it more easy to follow.
The evaluation here focus on the 2-metre temperature on 29 June 12UTC, in a 0.25x0.25 degree box cented on Nousseur (33.3N, 7.5W) close to Casablanca.
The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 26 June 12UTC to 2 July 12UTC, every 24 hour.
Observations and analysis for the event
Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)
DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)
AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)
AIFS-CRPS ensemble (~0.25 degree resolution)
EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)
The plots below show the EFI and SOT for maximum temperature on 29 June.
Forecast Evolution plot
The plot below shows the forecast evolution plot for the 12UTC temperature on 29 June in the box defined above. One can note that the values in the observation and short-range forecasts where lower than the model climate maximum, while the June records where broken. It can be explained by that the model climate is derived from +/- 2 weeks around the event, which in the case includes July data.
The signal appeared later in the AIFS ensemble than the IFS ensemble. But the early signal was more consistent in the AIFS-single.
Legend:
Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
AIFS-single - cyan dot
ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle
The plots below show ensemble mean weekly average of 2-metre temperature 23 June - 29 June in forecasts from different initial dates (all Mondays).
