Material from: Linus


 

Discussed in the following Daily reports:



1. Overview

 During the middle of July northern Europe, especially northern Norway and Sweden experienced a record breaking heatwave. For example Kvikkjokk (66.9N) in Sweden had maximum temperature above 30C three days in a row (15-17 July.)

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

Here we will focus on the 3-day (15-17 July) mean temperature in a 0.5x0.5 degree box centred on Kvikkjokk, Sweden (66.9N, 18E).

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 11 July to 18 July.

2.3 Observations


2.4 Climatological perspective

3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

 

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations and analysis for the event

Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)

DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)

AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)

AIFS-CRPS member 1 (~0.25 degree resolution)

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)

The plots below show the EFI for 3-day temperature 15-17 July.

Forecast Evolution plot

The plot below shows the forecast evolution for 2-day mean temperature around Kvikkjokk. One can note that AIFS-ENS started to pick up the signal for the heatwave 1-2 days earlier than IFS-ENS.

Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE - dark green
AIFS-single - cyan dot

ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle

3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

The plots below show ensemble mean weekly average of 2-metre temperature 14 July - 20 July in forecasts from different initial dates (all Mondays). 

The plots below show the same as above but for z500 anomalies.

3.5 Comparison with other centres


4. Hazard Forecasts


5. Dedicated Experiments


6. Event Summary

6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases


7. Additional material