Status:Ongoing analysis Material from: Linus, Fernando, Ervin

Discussed in the following Daily reports:

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/01/26/sc/

http://intra.ecmwf.int/daily/d/dreport/2016/01/22/sc/

Picture

1. Impact

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/section-news.php?id=165599

2. Description of the event

The plots below show the EFI for 2-metre temperature for the first forecast day as a proxy of the analysis for 20 to 26 January. The anomalous cold weather started in southern Russia around 21 January and propagated southward ans was most intense 23-24 January in China.

3. Predictability

3.1 Data assimilation

3.2 HRES

3.3 ENS

The plots below show the EFI for 2-metre temperature valid 22-25 January.

The plot below shows the evolution of ensemble forecasts of 850 hPa temperature for Hong Kong valid 23-24 January.

3.4 Monthly forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Experience from general performance/other cases

5. Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

• Extreme forecasts at least 1 week in advance
• Jumpy forecasts for 2-metre temperature (reported from Xiaohua Yang, DMI) see

6. Additional material