Material from: Linus

1. Overview

 To be added.

2. Analyses and Observations

2.1 Event Definition

We will here focus on the 24-hour rainfall on 10 August in a 1x1 degree box over Western Japan centred on 33.1N, 139.6E.

2.2 Analyses

The plots below show analyses of MSLP and 6-hour forecasts of precipitation 8 August 00UTC to 11 August 00UTC, every 12th hour.

The plots below show analyses of T850 and z500 from 7 August 00UTC to 11 August 00UTC, every 24 hour.

2.3 Observations

2.4 Climatological perspective

3. Forecasts

3.1 Data assimilation and observation usage

3.2 Single Forecasts for the event based on 00UTC forecasts (defined in Section 2.1)

Observations and analysis for the event

Control forecast (IFS 9-km resolution)

DestinE (IFS 4.4km resolution)

AIFS-single (AIFSv1.0 ~0.25 resolution)

AIFS-CRPS ensemble member 1 (~0.25 degree resolution)

3.3 Ensemble distribution

EFI (based on IFS 9-km ensemble)

The plots below show EFI and SOT for 1-day precipitation on 10 August.

Forecast Evolution plot

The plot below shows the evolution of the forecasts of 1-day precipitation in the box over Western Japan.

Legend:

Observation - green hourglass
Analysis - green dot
ENS CF - red dot
DestinE 4.4km - evergreen
AIFS-single - cyan dot

ENS distribution - blue
AIFS-ENS distribution - pink
ENS m-climate - cyan
ENS m-climate maximum - black triangle

3.4 Sub-seasonal forecasts

3.5 Comparison with other centres

4. Hazard Forecasts

5. Dedicated Experiments

6. Event Summary

6.1 Good and bad aspects of the forecasts for the event

• Good medium-range prediction of being a "wet" day
• Severe underestimation of the magnitude of the rainfall, also on the 1x1 degree scale.

6.2 Experience from general performance/other cases

7. Additional material